As the PGA Tour prepares for the 152nd British Open, it will make its final stop at the Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. The event is jointly sanctioned by the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour, with participants coming from members of both tours.
Renaissance Club is a 7,293 yard, par 71 course. The Tom Doak designed course is a links style golf course that offers players the opportunity to adapt to links golf as part of their preparation for the British Open.
The Scottish Open will welcome a strong field of 156 golfers. The only notable exceptions among the top players on the PGA Tour are Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns and Tony Finau.
Genesis Scottish Open champions
- 2023: Rory McIlroy (-15)
- 2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
- 2021: Lee Min-woo (-18)
- 2019: Aaron Ray (-11)
- 2018: Bernd Weisberg (-22)
In this and future articles, I will be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom models. If you would like to build your own models or see all the detailed statistics, you can sign up with promo code MATTVIN to get 25% off any subscription package (the annual subscription is the best deal).
Key statistics for the resurgent club
Let's look at Renaissance Club's key metrics to determine which golfers have achieved the highest scores in each category over the past 24 rounds.
There will be some limitations in the modelling this week as half of the players play primarily on the DP World Tour. Therefore, the latest statistics on the players' performances on the DP World Tour will not be included in the strokes gained metric.
1. Scoring: Method
Scoring: This week, offense will again be the most important statistic. The course record is held by Bernd Weisberg, who has been one of the most accurate iron players in the world throughout his career.
SG: Strategy for the past 24 rounds
- Corey Connors (+0.94)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.94)
- Aaron Ray (+0.93)
- Sepp Straka (+0.93)
- Ludwig Aberg (+0.88)
2. Scoring: Kick-off
Driving will be a big attraction this week. Renaissance has relatively narrow fairways, and long hitters have performed well here in the past.
SG: Last 24 rounds of kick-offs
- Lee Min Woo (+0.93)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.91)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.89)
- Kevin Yu (+0.75)
- Victor Hovland (+0.73)
3. Course History
This statistic will take into account players who have had success at the Renaissance club.
Match history for the past 8 rounds
- Rory McIlroy (+3.55)
- Tom King (+2.35)
- Ahn Byung-hun (+2.30)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2.23)
- Robert McIntyre (+2.12)
Score: Putt (Slow)
Scottish greens are generally much slower than what many players primarily on the PGA Tour are accustomed to. Therefore, it makes sense to evaluate which tour players have success on the slower greens.
Strokes Gained in Last 24 Rounds: Putting (Slow):
- Matthew Pavin (+1.84)
- Justin Lohr (+1.54)
- Christian Bezuidenhout (+1.48)
- Marcel Sim (+1.23)
- Mark Hubbard (+1.17)
Par 3 Score
There are five par 3 holes on the course and playing them effectively is crucial if you want to be competitive.
Par 3 scores in the past 24 rounds
- Andrew Novak (2.92)
- Sam Stevens (2.92)
- Xander Schauffele (2.95)
- Jordan Smith (2.95)
- Eric Van Rooyen (2.96)
Score: UK and Ireland
This statistic will tell us who is doing well in this part of the world.
England and Ireland last 36 matches to score
- Rory McIlroy (+2.59)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
- Tom King (+2.12)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.83)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.72)
Genesis Scottish Open Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled the overall model rankings combining the six key statistical categories discussed previously: SG: App (27%), Course History (13%), SG: UK & Ireland (13%), SG: OTT (21%), Par 3s (13%), and SG: Putting (Slow) (13%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Ahn Byung-hun
- Tom King
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Colin Morikawa
- Keith Mitchell
- Corey Connors
- Viktor Hovland
- Aaron Ray
2024 Genesis Scottish Open Highlights
Viktor Hovland +2000 (FanDuel)
Viktor Hovland's 2024 campaign got off to a slow start, but recent results suggest he'll be back to top form in the near future. Last year's Tour champion has four top-25 finishes in his past five starts, including a lone third-place finish at the PGA Championship.
Hovland should be a great fit at Renaissance. Last year, he tied for 25th, but given his skill set and the demands of the course, he definitely has room to grow. In his past 36 rounds in the UK and Ireland, Hovland is 6th in total strokes gained. In his past 24 rounds, he is 10th in approach strokes gained and 6th in driving strokes gained. The Norwegian has historically been a strong hitter on slow greens, and at Renaissance, he should be able to move around the greens with ease. Last year, he gained 2.7 strokes over the week.
Hovland is gradually reaching his peak this season and I believe he will be back in form soon, perhaps at this week's Scottish Open.
Tommy Fleetwood +2,500 (FanDuel)
Time is running out for Tommy Fleetwood to win his first PGA Tour title in 2024, but this week’s Scottish Open is undoubtedly his best chance to achieve that goal. The Englishman has become notorious for his inability to win in the United States so far, so a transatlantic trip should do wonders for Tommy’s confidence.
Fleetwood has been very consistent over his past six tournaments. He has never finished lower than 26th, and five of those have been at major or signature events, so he is competing against the best. Over his past 24 rounds, Tommy ranks 16th in Approach Gain: Strokes Gained and 21st in Slow Greens Strokes Gained: Strokes Gained.
Fleetwood has been absolutely incredible at the Renaissance Club. Since the Scottish Open became a PGA Tour event, he has finished T4 in 2022 and T6 in 2023. In both events, he has seen big improvements in all major statistical categories. Fleetwood lost to Aaron Rai in a playoff in 2020 when the Scottish Open was just a DP World Tour event.
Tommy Fleetwood is a completely different player when he plays in the UK. The seven-time DP World Tour champion is a great player in the US, but when it comes to links golf across the Atlantic, he belongs to the ultra-elite. It's hard to imagine that “Tommy Lad” won't be in contention down the stretch this week.
Tom King +3000 (FanDuel)
Tom King played some incredible golf before failing to make the cut as a favorite at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was a much-needed break for the young star, as he had played nine straight tournaments before taking a break last week.
Now that the Korean has regrouped and rejuvenated, I think he has a chance at the Scottish Open. In the past two seasons, Tom has finished 3rd and T6th in this event. He is a player who has proven time and again that he excels in “his” position, and early results certainly suggest this is one of those times.
King ranks first in total strokes gained over his past eight rounds. He also ranks third in strokes gained in the UK and Ireland over his past 36 rounds, showing that he enjoys playing in this region. He ranks ninth in approach strokes gained and 11th in driving strokes gained over his past 24 rounds. The 22-year-old has been excellent both in terms of course fitness and recent form.
Tom has had a few close victories recently, including a playoff loss against the best player in the world at the Travelers Championship. Fortunately for Tom, Scottie won't be here this week.
Nicola Hoggard +8000 (FanDuel)
Another player who has been making a difference on this side of the Atlantic is Nicola Hoggard. The 23-year-old Dane has won three DP World Tour events, including the Italian Open and the DP World Tour Championship. He has beaten some of the top players in those tournaments and played in last year's Ryder Cup in Rome.
While his results on the PGA Tour have been disappointing, his ball-striking is still excellent. He has scored on approach shots in three straight tournaments and is 25th in the UK and Ireland overall scoring rankings over the past 24 rounds. He finished at -21 into the wind at last year's DP World Tour Championship, beating Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland by two shots. If the scoring is easier this weekend, Nicola is the type of player who can keep up with the birdies.
This year has been a disappointing one for Hoijgaard so far, but I still believe there is a lot more to come for this unique talent.
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